The Extra Point In the NFL, the Fat Lady Sings the Latest

In the NFL, the Fat Lady Sings the Latest

2 days ago

The 272nd game of the 2025 NFL regular season was a thriller, with the Pittsburgh Steelers outlasting the Baltimore Ravens, 24-22, claiming the AFC North Division title in the process. The game featured four lead changes in the fourth quarter, and according to Next Gen Stats, neither team crossed the 90% win probability threshold until after the last play of the game.

Learn more about NFL Next Gen Stats.

Sunday night’s finale capped another exciting NFL regular season. In 2025, 73 games were decided by three or fewer points, tied with 2018 and 2022 for the most in NFL history. 

While close and exciting games may feel like the norm, we figured it would help to spell out how long games stay close in the NFL. To do so, we took the same win probability models that we have used to identify high-impact fouls and the role of luck in game outcomes, and looked at how often NFL games stayed close. That is, how long did games last with each team having – like the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday – a chance to win?

The following graph shows how game closeness, as measured through win probability, tracks from the opening minute until the end. As a point of comparison, we compared the NFL to Major League Baseball (MLB) (win probability model from baseballr), the National Basketball Association (NBA) (win probability model from Mike Beuoy at inpredictable), and NCAA football (using Power 5 games, win probability model from cfbfastR). For closeness, we chose thresholds of 5% and 95%, though other cutoffs yielded similar results. The graph’s x-axis is standardized to compare each of the leagues, using the percentage of time elapsed in each game.

Here’s how the various leagues compare. 

The top line, in navy blue, shows the NFL as the league with the highest percentage of close games. For example, at halftime (50% of the way through a game), 94% of NFL games are still within the 5% to 95% win probability threshold, highest of the four comparison leagues. Alternatively, about one in five NCAA Power 5 games (shown in light blue) are already over at halftime, with one team already having at least a 95% chance to win.

The NFL’s game closeness tracks throughout the rest of the game. At the end of the third quarter (75% of the way through a game), 71% of NFL games remain close, compared to 68% of games in MLB, 66% in the NBA, and 60% in NCAA Power 5. Additionally, midway through the NFL’s fourth quarter (62% of NFL games are close) and at game’s end (29% of NFL games are close), the NFL likewise has the highest rate of close games. Comparing the other leagues, MLB shows an earlier drop off than the NBA (between 25% and 50% of the way into a game), before eventually pulling back even.

No win probability model is perfect, and different models could give different results. However, at least using public models, there does appear to be a benefit to tuning into the NFL – your team is more likely to remain in it until the end.